The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, supplying lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don't appear to believe so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market also. Remember that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the greatest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most enjoy from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked with several bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely reputable gamer."
Despite the fact that cash has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are stacking on Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We chatted with several bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has actually crept up a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at many sportsbooks. The total dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
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"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be shocked if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
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Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before highly regarded money pressed it to the present line of -2.5. A somewhat greater bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some respected cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The overall has actually increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the most significant move of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over so far.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp gamblers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen significant buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line flip? Simply put, the sports betting action.
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Although Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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